Thursday, October 1, 2026Updated 11:11 AM CDT

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Indicators

Six public measures, fetched from their publishers · last checked Oct 1, 11:11 AM CDT. "Unavailable" means the source didn't answer, and we never fill in a guess. "Stale" means the latest reading is older than usual.

  • Yield curve (10-yr minus 3-mo)+1.09 ptsvalue dated Sep 30, 2026 Up +0.08 vs Sep 29Long-term rates are above short-term ones, the usual shape. The curve is not inverted.10-yr 5.29% · 3-mo 4.20% · 2-yr 4.88%Source: U.S. Treasury
  • Crude oil (WTI spot)$96.16 /bblvalue dated Sep 29, 2026 Down −$3.21 vs Sep 28Oil is $3.21 a barrel cheaper than the trading day before. Pump prices tend to follow oil over a few weeks.Source: U.S. EIA
  • Policy uncertainty (US, daily)175 indexvalue dated Sep 30, 2026 Down −18.9 vs Sep 29News coverage of US policy uncertainty rose this week compared with last week. Daily readings swing a lot, so the weekly average is the better guide.7-day avg 250Source: Baker, Bloom & Davis — policyuncertainty.com
  • Geopolitical risk (daily)182 indexvalue dated Oct 1, 2026 Up +31.1 vs Sep 30News coverage of war, threats and terrorism is heavier than a week earlier (weekly average). Daily readings swing a lot.7-day avg 182 · acts 280 · threats 110Source: Caldara & Iacoviello (Federal Reserve Board)
  • Active weather alerts (US)342 alertsas of Oct 1, 11:12 AM CDT Down −5 vs previous reading Oct 1, 10:41 AM CDT342 weather alerts are active across the country, from routine advisories to local storms. Check weather.gov for your own county.land 197 · marine 145Source: National Weather Service
  • Gasoline, regular (US avg)$4.465 /galvalue dated Sep 28, 2026 Down −$0.013 vs week of Sep 21The national average is 1.3¢ a gallon lower than the week before.Source: U.S. EIA

Still developing

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Policy & Unrest

Supreme Court to Hear Arguments in More Illegal Immigration, Religious Freedom Cases

The Supreme Court announced Thursday it will consider a case on the detention of illegal immigrants, as well as a case touching on religious liberty. In the case of Rhoney v. Barbosa da Cunha, justices will decide whether federal law requires the detention of illegal aliens pending their removal…

The Daily Signal ·

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