Thursday, October 1, 2026Updated 12:43 PM CDT

Indicators

Six public measures, fetched from their publishers · last checked Oct 1, 12:43 PM CDT. "Unavailable" means the source didn't answer, and we never fill in a guess. "Stale" means the latest reading is older than usual.

  • Yield curve (10-yr minus 3-mo)+1.09 ptsvalue dated Sep 30, 2026 Up +0.08 vs Sep 29Long-term rates are above short-term ones, the usual shape. The curve is not inverted.10-yr 5.29% · 3-mo 4.20% · 2-yr 4.88%Source: U.S. Treasury
  • Crude oil (WTI spot)$96.16 /bblvalue dated Sep 29, 2026 Down −$3.21 vs Sep 28Oil is $3.21 a barrel cheaper than the trading day before. Pump prices tend to follow oil over a few weeks.Source: U.S. EIA
  • Policy uncertainty (US, daily)175 indexvalue dated Sep 30, 2026 Down −18.9 vs Sep 29News coverage of US policy uncertainty rose this week compared with last week. Daily readings swing a lot, so the weekly average is the better guide.7-day avg 250Source: Baker, Bloom & Davis — policyuncertainty.com (via FRED)
  • Geopolitical risk (daily)182 indexvalue dated Oct 1, 2026 Up +31.1 vs Sep 30News coverage of war, threats and terrorism is heavier than a week earlier (weekly average). Daily readings swing a lot.7-day avg 182 · acts 280 · threats 110Source: Caldara & Iacoviello (Federal Reserve Board)
  • Active weather alerts (US)349 alertsas of Oct 1, 12:44 PM CDT Down −5 vs previous reading Oct 1, 12:13 PM CDT349 weather alerts are active across the country, from routine advisories to local storms. Check weather.gov for your own county.land 200 · marine 149Source: National Weather Service
  • Gasoline, regular (US avg)$4.465 /galvalue dated Sep 28, 2026 Down −$0.013 vs week of Sep 21The national average is 1.3¢ a gallon lower than the week before.Source: U.S. EIA

Still developing

Stories with the most headlines over the past few days · All stories

Policy & Unrest

Trump’s immigration detention policy to face justices

The Supreme Court agreed Thursday to hear a dispute about the legality of the Trump administration’s mandatory detention policy for many immigrants facing deportation. The brief order sets up another high-profile fight during the coming term, when the justices will also hear issues ranging from…

Roll Call ·

Economy

Cost of living, energy and fuel prices, and markets when they reach households

War & Conflict

Conflict involving the US, and wars abroad when they reach home

Accountability

Agency failures, inspector general and GAO findings, disaster response gaps and infrastructure breakdowns

Policy & Unrest

ICE and detention, court rulings on policy and civil liberties, protests, and policy changes that divide us